False News/MH370 Altitude Data
False News: MH370 Altitude Data
At 0107:56 MYT MH370 was approaching waypoint IGARI and the Transfer of Control Point over the South China Sea when the flight crew reported maintaining an altitude of 35,000 feet, as previously instructed by Air Traffic Control at 0050:08 MYT.
By 0121:13 MYT MH370 had passed waypoint IGARI, and was on the 'air turnback' path across peninsula Malaysia, as recorded by military radar. The Malaysian military continued to track MH370 until the aircraft was beyond radar range at 0222:12 MYT.
Media published three kinds of Misinformation about MH370, based on radar data:-
- The 'blip' which represented the Boeing 777 on civilian, air traffic control [secondary] radar screens 'disappeared'. Initially this was misinterpreted as meaning the aircraft had disappeared.
- However, when it became known that the aircraft had flown across peninsula Malaysia the Media interpreted the loss of [secondary] radar response as an indication of an intention to avoid radar tracking by flying at low altitudes including terrain masking.
- But when military radar altitude data was leaked to the Media they published reports that MH370 had increased altitude to as much as 49,000 feet. But the data was not reliable. This altitude would also be above the service ceiling of the Boeing 777.
The next stage of false news was Disinformation: Commentators used the false radar data to push a theory that the Pilot-in-Command had deliberately increased altitude and then de-pressurised the aircraft to end the lives of everyone else on-board. It was alleged that depressurising the aircraft and increasing altitude to 49,000 feet together was for the sole purpose making the process quicker. There is no evidence for these actions.
Any theory based on a false premise lacks credibility. This article attempts to 'correct the record'.
1. Civilian Secondary Radar
- KL ATCC: The Mode S symbol of MH370 dropped off from radar display at 1720:36 UTC (0120:36 MYT).
- The radar position symbol of MH370 disappeared at 1721:13 UTC (0121:13 MYT). The KL ACC radar and the Bangkok radar both recorded the target drop at 1721:13 UTC (0121:13 MYT).
MH370 was 3.2 nm beyond waypoint IGARI when the SSR radar position symbol of MH370 dropped off from ATC radar display. - Ho Chi Minh Air Traffic Services radar data recorded the “blip” from MH370 from both SSR and ADS-B radar position symbols disappeared from the radar display at 01:20:45 MYT.
Although minor differences in time were recorded, one fact is consistent: at approximately 01:21 MYT the 'blip' or SSR radar position symbol representing the Boeing 777 aircraft (MH370) ceased to be shown on radar displays operated by Air Traffic Control centres in Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam.
The simplest explanation is that the Transponder on the aircraft was turned off or disabled, and did not respond to the signals transmitted by the secondary radar stations in each country.
The aircraft was observable by primary radar, as recorded by the Malaysian military, and would have been observed in real-time by KL ATC if the controllers had looked.
The aircraft did not disappear.
2. Military Radar
A summary of the Malaysian military radar data is published in the Safety Investigation Report (2018) together with a graphic as shown below:-
Figure 1.1B - Profile Chart of Data from Malaysian Military Radar (not to scale).
Source: Safety Investigation Report (2018)
Section 1.1.3 Diversion from Filed Flight Plan Route begins with the following statement:-
1) Malaysian Military Radar
The Military radar data provided more extensive details of what was termed as “Air Turn Back”. It became very apparent, however, that the recorded altitude and speed change “blip” to “blip” were well beyond the capability of the aircraft. It was highlighted to the Team that the altitude and speed extracted from the data are subjected to inherent error.
The only useful information obtained from the Military radar was the latitude and longitude position of the aircraft as this data is reasonably accurate.
Source: 1.1.3 Diversion from Filed Flight Plan Route, Safety Investigation Report (2018)
(Emphasis Added)
Issues with Figure 1.18
- The graph is 'not to scale'.
- There is no caption or explanation for the red line and numbers above the main altitude graph.
- Military radar observations of MH370 were not continuous - as described in the Safety Investigation Report the data is recorded at distinct times. But the graph joins them together forming a continuous wavy line.
- The accompanying text acknowledges that the data is not reliable.
- The accompanying text also acknowledges that the changes of altitude and speed determined from the radar data is "well beyond" the capability of the aircraft. For example, the Service Ceiling of the Boeing 777 aircraft is 43,100 feet.
Conclusion:
- IF the Malaysian ICAO Annex 13 Safety Investigation Team for MH370 with all their expertise, and advice from Boeing and various working groups, are prepared to dismiss Malaysia's military radar MH370 altitude data as unreliable, "subject to inherent error", and not useful -
- THEN any theory or conclusion by any commentator or author which is based on that invalid data should be ignored. By definition, the military radar altitude data was misinformation.